Handling Concept Drift for Predictions in Business Process Mining

Predictive services nowadays play an important role across all business sectors. However, deployed machine learning models are challenged by changing data streams over time which is described as concept drift. Prediction quality of models can be largely influenced by this phenomenon. Therefore, concept drift is usually handled by retraining of the model. However, current research lacks a recommendation which data should be selected for the retraining of the machine learning model. Therefore, we systematically analyze different data selection strategies in this work. Subsequently, we instantiate our findings on a use case in process mining which is strongly affected by concept drift. We can show that we can improve accuracy from 0.5400 to 0.7010 with concept drift handling. Furthermore, we depict the effects of the different data selection strategies

AI for in-line vehicle sequence controlling: development and evaluation of an adaptive machine learning artifact to predict sequence deviations in a mixed-model production line

Customers in the manufacturing sector, especially in the automotive industry, have a high demand for individualized products at price levels comparable to traditional mass production. The contrary objectives of providing a variety of products and operating at minimum costs have introduced a high degree of production planning and control mechanisms based on a stable order sequence for mixed-model assembly lines. A major threat to this development is sequence scrambling, triggered by both operational and product-related root causes. Despite the introduction of just-in-time and fixed production times, the problem of sequence scrambling remains partially unresolved in the automotive industry. Negative downstream effects range from disruptions in the just-in-sequence supply chain to a stop of the production process. A precise prediction of sequence deviations at an early stage allows the introduction of counteractions to stabilize the sequence before disorder emerges. While procedural causes are widely addressed in research, the work at hand requires a different perspective involving a product-related view. Built on unique data from a real-world global automotive manufacturer, a supervised classification model is trained and evaluated. This includes all the necessary steps to design, implement, and assess an AI artifact, as well as data gathering, preprocessing, algorithm selection, and evaluation. To ensure long-term prediction stability, we include a continuous learning module to counter data drifts. We show that up to 50% of the major deviations can be predicted in advance. However, we do not consider any process-related information, such as machine conditions and shift plans, but solely focus on the exploitation of product features like body type, powertrain, color, and special equipment

Holistic System-Analytics as an Alternative to Isolated Sensor Technology: A Condition Monitoring Use Case

Sensor technology has become increasingly important (e.g., Industry 4.0, IoT). Large numbers of machines and products are equipped with sensors to constantly monitor their condition. Usually, the condition of an entire system is inferred through sensors in parts of the system by means of a multiplicity of methods and techniques. This so-called condition monitoring can thus reduce the downtime costs of a machine through improved maintenance scheduling. However, for small components as well as relatively inexpensive or immutable parts of a machine, sometimes it is not possible or uneconomical to embed sensors. We propose a system-oriented concept of how to monitor individual components of a complex technical system without including additional sensor technology. By using already existing sensors from the environment combined with machine learning techniques, we are able to infer the condition of a system component, without actually observing it. In consequence condition monitoring or additional services based on the component\u27s behavior can be developed without overcoming the challenges of sensor implementation

Towards Leveraging End-of-Life Tools as an Asset: Value Co-Creation based on Deep Learning in the Machining Industry

Sustainability is the key concept in the management of products that reached their end-of-life. We propose that end-of-life products have—besides their value as recyclable assets—additional value for producer and consumer. We argue this is especially true for the machining industry, where we illustrate an automatic characterization of worn cutting tools to foster value co-creation between tool manufacturer and tool user (customer) in the future. In the work at hand, we present a deep-learning-based computer vision system for the automatic classification of worn tools regarding flank wear and chipping. The resulting Matthews Correlation Coefficient of 0.878 and 0.644 confirms the feasibility of our system based on the VGG-16 network and Gradient Boosting. Based on these first results we derive a research agenda which addresses the need for a more holistic tool characterization by semantic segmentation and assesses the perceived business impact and usability by different user groups

Intelligent Decision Assistance Versus Automated Decision-Making: Enhancing Knowledge Workers Through Explainable Artificial Intelligence

While recent advances in AI-based automated decision-making have shown many benefits for businesses and society, they also come at a cost. It has long been known that a high level of automation of decisions can lead to various drawbacks, such as automation bias and deskilling. In particular, the deskilling of knowledge workers is a major issue, as they are the same people who should also train, challenge, and evolve AI. To address this issue, we conceptualize a new class of DSS, namely Intelligent Decision Assistance (IDA) based on a literature review of two different research streams---DSS and automation. IDA supports knowledge workers without influencing them through automated decision-making. Specifically, we propose to use techniques of Explainable AI (XAI) while withholding concrete AI recommendations. To test this conceptualization, we develop hypotheses on the impacts of IDA and provide the first evidence for their validity based on empirical studies in the literature

An Uncertainty-based Human-in-the-loop System for Industrial Tool Wear Analysis

Convolutional neural networks have shown to achieve superior performance on image segmentation tasks. However, convolutional neural networks, operating as black-box systems, generally do not provide a reliable measure about the confidence of their decisions. This leads to various problems in industrial settings, amongst others, inadequate levels of trust from users in the model's outputs as well as a non-compliance with current policy guidelines (e.g., EU AI Strategy). To address these issues, we use uncertainty measures based on Monte-Carlo dropout in the context of a human-in-the-loop system to increase the system's transparency and performance. In particular, we demonstrate the benefits described above on a real-world multi-class image segmentation task of wear analysis in the machining industry. Following previous work, we show that the quality of a prediction correlates with the model's uncertainty. Additionally, we demonstrate that a multiple linear regression using the model's uncertainties as independent variables significantly explains the quality of a prediction ($R^2=0.718$). Within the uncertainty-based human-in-the-loop system, the multiple regression aims at identifying failed predictions on an image-level. The system utilizes a human expert to label these failed predictions manually. A simulation study demonstrates that the uncertainty-based human-in-the-loop system increases performance for different levels of human involvement in comparison to a random-based human-in-the-loop system. To ensure generalizability, we show that the presented approach achieves similar results on the publicly available Cityscapes dataset.Comment: Alexander Treiss and Jannis Walk contributed equally in shared first authorship. To be published at ECML-PKDD 202

A Study on Fairness and Trust Perceptions in Automated Decision Making

Automated decision systems are increasingly used for consequential decision making---for a variety of reasons. These systems often rely on sophisticated yet opaque models, which do not (or hardly) allow for understanding how or why a given decision was arrived at. This is not only problematic from a legal perspective, but non-transparent systems are also prone to yield undesirable (e.g., unfair) outcomes because their sanity is difficult to assess and calibrate in the first place. In this work, we conduct a study to evaluate different attempts of explaining such systems with respect to their effect on people\u27s perceptions of fairness and trustworthiness towards the underlying mechanisms. A pilot study revealed surprising qualitative insights as well as preliminary significant effects, which will have to be verified, extended and thoroughly discussed in the larger main study